#451: AI Model Competition Is Heating Up, & More

Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted¹ a roadmap for the ChatGPT creator's upcoming AI models, GPT-4.5 and GPT-5. GPT-4.5 will be the final model without chain-of-thought reasoning, the process that allows models like o1 and o3 to adapt to more complex tasks. After GPT-4.5, OpenAI plans to introduce GPT-5 as an integrated system combining multiple models and tools ranging from voice and canvas to search and deep research. By synthesizing them, GPT-5 will determine how much time to spend on reasoning and which tools to use. Sam Altman expects GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 to roll out during the next few weeks and months, respectively. 

Notably, GPT-5 will offer tiered access to different levels of intelligence depending on the user’s subscription level. Free users will have access to standard GPT-5, while Plus and Pro subscribers will have access to more powerful capabilities. All tiers will have access to deep research² functionality, with monthly usage caps that scale with subscription levels.

The competitive landscape is heating up. Anthropic is developing³ its own reasoning model with thinking time that users can adjust, an attempt to close the gap between its Claude models and recent offerings from OpenAI and Google. Simultaneously, Elon Musk’s xAI intends to release Grok 3,⁴ promising more leapfrogs in the next few weeks. In our view, this wave of innovation reinforces the potential for exponential growth in AI that will reshape most industries.

Boom Supersonic just made history. As the first US-built civil supersonic jet to break the sound barrier in January, Boom unveiled "Boomless Cruise" technology that promises travel up to 50% faster than today's jets without an audible boom, with plans to deliver commercial supersonic travel in 2029.⁵ Boomless Cruise breaks the sound barrier at high altitudes during which sonic booms U-turn in the atmosphere without touching the ground, as shown below.

Source: Scholl 2025.⁶ For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.

Boomless Cruise incorporates high-altitude supersonic flight, precise weather data, and advanced algorithms to predict boom propagation. With the right altitude and power, Boom’s “Symphony” engine has enabled that breakthrough. Elon Musk has confirmed that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will eliminate unnecessary regulations, including the FAA’s ban on civil supersonic flight,⁷ which should aid Boom’s path to commercialization by 2029.

Last week, Anthropic launched the Anthropic Economic Index,⁸ a data-driven perspective on how its Claude model is impacting labor markets. Based on anonymized interactions with Claude.ai, the report highlights how AI is impacting different occupations. 

While labor associated with software development accounts for only 3.4% of the US workforce, for example, 37.2% of Claude’s chats are focused on coding, as shown below. These data suggest that AI models have developed different strengths, with Claude demonstrating superior performance on technical tasks. More broadly, according to Anthropic, AI has been integrated into ~25% of tasks in 36% of occupations, but only 4% of all jobs rely on it for more than 75% of their workload.

Source: Anthropic 2025.⁹ For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.

Furthermore, according to Anthropic,¹⁰ 57% of Claude’s usage is for augmenting human work on tasks, and 43% of chats with Claude ask it to approach a problem more autonomously, as shown below. Adoption skews toward mid- and high-wage jobs like programming and data science relative to the lowest- and highest-paid jobs. To encourage research on those topics, Anthropic has open-sourced its dataset,¹¹ inviting economists and policymakers to explore AI’s evolving impact on productivity and employment.

Source: Anthropic 2025.¹² For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.